BNY Mellon Global Markets – Weekly Market Commentary

We could have easily named this week’s report “same problems, different week”, which combined with our witty attempt to draw you into this week’s musings encapsulates the challenging environment that has greeted us in 2016. We have to respect the trade, and that continues to point towards volatility and accelerating risk shedding. As we write this morning, we are greeted with the majority of the world’s stock exchanges in bear market territory, while oil prices are at levels last seen in 2003. The flight to quality bid has been strong, with 10y yields falling below 2% for the first time since last October when fear of stagnant global growth via a slowing Chinese economy also gripped the market. Almost on cue, we had the IMF reduce its global growth projections for 2016 by 20 bps to 3.6%, with concerns expressed over China, Brazil and commodity prices. The falling value of the CNY/CNH, which was the center of the storm at the beginning of the year, has since been stable, although questions remain as to the strength of its economy. While recently released data indicated Chinese GDP “around” 7%, the veracity of that data remains in question which adds further fuel to fire.

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